ALIBABA GRP HLD/SH SH stock upgraded to Sell Candidate. (Updated on August 30, 2021)

Sell candidate since 2021-08-24 Loss -5.83% PDF

The ALIBABA GRP HLD/SH SH stock price gained 1.48% on the last trading day (Monday, 30th Aug 2021), rising from HK$155.90 to HK$158.20. During the day the stock fluctuated 3.76% from a day low at HK$154.30 to a day high of HK$160.10. The price has fallen in 6 of the last 10 days and is down by -16.16% for this period. Volume fell on the last day by -19 million shares and in total, 33 million shares were bought and sold for approximately HK$5.22 billion. You should take into consideration that falling volume on higher prices causes divergence and may be an early warning about possible changes over the next couple of days.

The stock lies in the middle of a very wide and falling trend in the short term and further fall within the trend is signaled. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to fall -20.56% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between HK$117.76 and HK$149.36 at the end of this 3-month period. Do note, that if the stock price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.

Signals & Forecast

A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Monday, August 23, 2021, and so far it has risen 4.01%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Volume fell during the last trading day despite gaining prices. This causes a divergence between volume and price and it may be an early warning. The stock should be watched closely. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The ALIBABA GRP HLD/SH SH stock holds sell signals from both short and long-term moving averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at HK$160.37 and HK$186.97. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 months Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD).

Support, Risk & Stop-loss

ALIBABA GRP HLD/SH SH finds support from accumulated volume at HK$155.90 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

This stock may move much during the day (volatility) and with a large prediction interval from the Bollinger Band this stock is considered to be high risk. During the last day, the stock moved HK$5.80 between high and low, or 3.76%. For the last week, the stock has had a daily average volatility of 5.24%.

Our recommended stop-loss: We hold an negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.


ALIBABA GRP HLD/SH SH holds several negative signals and is within a very wide and falling trend, so we believe it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We therefore hold a negative evaluation of this stock. We have upgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Strong Sell to a Sell candidate.

Current score: -3.757

Predicted Opening Price for ALIBABA GRP HLD/SH SH of Tuesday, August 31, 2021

The predicted opening price is based on yesterdays movements between high, low, and the closing price.

Fair opening price August 31, 2021 Current price
HK$157.53 HK$158.20 (Overvalued)

Sell Candidate Upgraded

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